Rabu, 31 Juli 2013

ADP National Employment Report: July 2013

Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. improved in July as private employers added 200,000 jobs in the month bringing the total employment level 1.79% above the level seen in July 2012.

Look for Friday’s BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show somewhat similar trends.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – July 31 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 1 basis point to 4.44% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume decreased 4% over the same period.

Rates now appear to possibly be trending down after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points seemingly directly correlated with the Feds recent suggestion that they may start to wind down GSE purchases later this year.

It appears now though that Chairman Bernanke's latest comments might have worked to provide a bit more clarity surrounding the Feds plans for QE thereby working to halt the recent run-up in rates.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).




Selasa, 30 Juli 2013

S&P/Case-Shiller: May 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for May reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index rose a notable 2.48% since April while the Composite-20 index also increased 2.44% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate significant resiliency compared to past years, as prices remained stable through the typically slow winter and early spring period and now appear to be rising notably through the more active late spring period.

The 10-city composite index increased 11.82% as compared to May 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 12.17% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices still show significant peak declines slumping -25.01% for the 10-city national index and -24.39% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

Senin, 29 Juli 2013

Pending Home Sales: June 2013

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for June showing that pending home sales declined with the seasonally adjusted national index falling 0.4% from May but increasing 10.9% above the level seen in June 2012.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun is suggests that the recent run-up in interest rates worked to depress the latest read of contract activity:

"Mortgage interest rates began to rise in May, taking some of the momentum out of contract activity in June, ... The persistent lack of inventory also is contributing to lower contract signings."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Rabu, 24 Juli 2013

New Home Sales: May 2013

Yesterday, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for May showing a improvement with sales climbing a notable 8.3% from April and rising 38.1% above the level seen in May 2012 but still remaining at an historically low level of 497K SAAR units.

It's important to recognize that the inventory of new homes appears to be mounting as unsold units totaled 161K, still though near the lowest level seen in in at least 47 years while the median number of months for sale decreased to 3.9.

The monthly supply declined to 3.9 months while the median selling price increased 7.35% and the average selling price increased 8.54% from the year ago level.

The following chart show the extent of sales decline to date (click for full-larger version).

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – July 24 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) went declined notably dropping 10 basis points to 4.43% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 2% and the refinance application volume decreased 1% over the same period.

Rates now appear to possibly be trending down after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points seemingly directly correlated with the Feds recent suggestion that they may start to wind down GSE purchases later this year.

It appears now though that Chairman Bernanke's latest comments might have worked to provide a bit more clarity surrounding the Feds plans for QE thereby working to halt the recent run-up in rates.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).




Selasa, 23 Juli 2013

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: May 2013

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in May, nationally, home prices increased 0.68% from April and rose 7.24% above the level seen in May 2012.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.