Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices July 2013

The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in July, the price of residential properties increased 0.08% since June rising 17.95% above the level seen in July 2012.

Clearly, the slight pullback in prices seen late 2012 has been completely surpassed by another, notable leg up.

With the prior late-90s era peak having been bested handily by the latest price run up, it will be interesting to see how long this period of house price inflation can run.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

S&P/Case-Shiller: July 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for July reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index rose a notable 1.86% since June while the Composite-20 index also increased 1.85% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate significant resiliency compared to past years, as prices remained stable through the typically slow winter and early spring period and now appear to be rising notably through the more active late spring period.

The 10-city composite index increased 12.28% as compared to July 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 12.39% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices still show significant peak declines slumping -21.99% for the 10-city national index and -21.32% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

Radar Watching: May 2013

As I have noted in the past, since the home price index data provided by Radar Logic is more timely, unadjusted and un-smoothed it is particularly useful for gaining deeper visibility over our housing markets.

As for the latest trends, it’s important to note that the 25-MSA Composite is continuing to show significant year-over-year increases rising 9.5% above the level seen in May 2012 with prices, more or less, bucking the typical seasonal trends and staying elevated throughout the winter months and on into spring.

This year we see a very small price drop moving into November possibly indicating that the remainder of the price declines until March could also be relativity small.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: June 2013

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in June, nationally, home prices increased 0.65% from May and rose 7.48% above the level seen in June 2012.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales July 2013

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing an increase of 0.2% from June, and a gain of 5.4% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales, on the other hand, declined 0.1% from June but still increased 2.61% above the level seen in July 2012 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined 0.1% on the month and increased 0.80% since July 2012.

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: May 2013

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in May, nationally, home prices increased 0.68% from April and rose 7.24% above the level seen in May 2012.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

S&P/Case-Shiller: April 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for April reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index rose a notable 2.63% since March while the Composite-20 index also increased 2.52% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate significant resiliency compared to past years, as prices remained stable through the typically slow winter and early spring period and now appear to be rising notably into the more active late spring.

The 10-city composite index increased 11.58% as compared to April 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 12.05% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -26.81% for the 10-city national index and -26.22% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: March 2013

Yesterday's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for March reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased again rising a notable 1.38% since February while the Composite-20 index also increased 1.38% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate more resiliency than seen in recent years as prices continue to move up even in the face of typically lower seasonal transactions.

If this trend continues, rather than declining as has been seen in past years, prices may continue to rise in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

The 10-city composite index increased 10.26% as compared to March 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 10.87% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -28.64% for the 10-city national index and -28.02% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices February 2012

The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in February, the price of residential properties increased a notable 1.91% since January and rose 29.26% above the level seen in February 2012.

Clearly, the slight pullback in prices seen late 2012 has been completely surpassed by another, notable leg up.

With the prior late-90s era peak having been bested handily by the latest price run up, it will be interesting to see how long this period of house price inflation can run.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

S&P/Case-Shiller: February 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for February reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased for a straight month rising 0.37% since January while the Composite-20 index increased 0.29% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate more resiliency than seen in recent years as prices continue to move up even in the face of typically lower seasonal transactions.

If this trend continues, rather than declining as has been seen in past years, prices may just remain flat into the March-April release in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

The 10-city composite index increased 8.60% as compared to February 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 9.32% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -29.63% for the 10-city national index and -29.03% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: February 2013

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in February, nationally, home prices increased 0.75% from January and rose 7.07% above the level seen in February 2012.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

S&P/Case-Shiller: January 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for January reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased again rising a slight 0.16% since December while the Composite-20 index increased 0.13% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is beginning to demonstrate more resiliency than seen in recent years as prices continue to move up, even just slightly, in the face of typical lower seasonal transactions.

If this trend continues, rather than declining as has been seen in past years, prices may just remain flat into the February-March release in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

The 10-city composite index increased 7.25% as compared to January 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 8.08% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -29.86% for the 10-city national index and -29.24% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: January 2013

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in January, nationally, home prices increased 0.55% from December and rose 6.5% above the level seen in December 2011.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices December 2012

The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in December, the price of residential properties declined 0.8% since November but climbed 26.77% above the level seen in December 2011.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: December 2012

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in December, nationally, home prices increased 0.63% from November and rose 5.99% above the level seen in December 2011.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

S&P/Case-Shiller: December 2012

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for December reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased a slight 0.25% since November while the Composite-20 index increased 0.16% over the same period.

The latest CSI data demonstrates, more or less, that the typical seasonal pattern is continuing to play with price weakness coming as a result of lower seasonal transactions.  If this trend continues, prices should continue to remain flat to decline into the February-March release in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

It's important to recognize though that on a year-over-year basis, nominal prices remain in positive territory possibly indicating the current seasonal weakness may be minor compared to recent years.

The 10-city composite index increased 5.95% as compared to December 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 6.84% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -29.96% for the 10-city national index and -29.33% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: November 2012

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for November reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index declined a slight 0.17% since October while the Composite-20 index declined 0.09% over the same period.

The latest CSI data clearly demonstrates that the typical seasonal pattern is continuing to play with price weakness coming as a result of lower transactions.  If this trend continues, prices should continue to decline into the February-March release in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

It's important to recognize though that on a year-over-year basis, nominal prices remain in positive territory possibly indicating that this seasons seasonal weakness may minor compared to recent years.

The 10-city composite index increased 4.54% as compared to November 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 5.52% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -30.05% for the 10-city national index and -29.39% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: November 2012

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in November, nationally, home prices increased 0.56% from October and rose 5.67% above the level seen in November 2011.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

S&P/Case-Shiller: August 2012

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for August reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased 0.87% since August while the Composite-20 index increased 0.88% over the same period.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends continued to experience a lift through the typically more active spring-summer season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data while continuing to capture rising prices, is starting to see a leveling off of the trend as the data moves through the summer transactions and heads for the typical declines seen in late-summer and fall.

The 10-city composite index increased 1.35% as compared to August 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 2.03% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -29.90% for the 10-city national index and -29.37% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: July 2012

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in July, nationally, home prices increased 0.2% since June rising 3.90% above the level seen in July 2011.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.