Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings October 2013

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that assessments of housing activity eased in October with the composite HMI index falling to 55 while the "buyer traffic" index slumped to a level of 44.

It's important to note that while the last few months results have suggested a pullback of sorts for home builder activity, the latest trend has been very strong and consistent with the overall recovery seen in the nation's housing markets.  

Looking at the data, it is fairly clear that the last year of results indicate a major change in builder sentiment likely coming as a result of improvements in confidence given the notable rise in buyer traffic, reduced inventory and a more balanced monthly supply.

Construction Spending: July 2013

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing increase in June with total private construction spending rising 0.92% from June while single family private residential construction spending and non-residential construction spending also increased on the month.

On a month-to-month basis, total residential spending increased 0.58% from June climbing 19.00% above the level seen in July 2012 while still remaining a whopping 50.54% below the peak level seen in 2006.

Single family construction spending increased 0.50% since June rising 31.74% since July 2012 but remained a whopping 64.25% below it's peak in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending increased 1.31% since June falling 0.29% below the level seen in July 2012 and remained a whopping 30.37% below the peak level reached in October 2008.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.

Pending Home Sales: July 2013

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for July showing that pending home sales declined with the seasonally adjusted national index falling 1.3% from June but increasing 6.7% above the level seen in July 2012.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun is suggests that the recent pullback in contract activity does not constitute a general trend while in the Northeast and West, higher rates and prices are having an impact on sales:

"The modest decline in sales is not yet concerning, and contract activity remains elevated, with the South and Midwest showing no measurable slowdown.  However, higher mortgage interest rates and rising home prices are impacting monthly contract activity in the high-cost regions of the Northeast and the West ... More homes clearly need to be built in the West to relieve price pressure, or the region could soon face pronounced affordability problems."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims August 01 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed declines to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 19,000 to 326,000 claims from 345,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 52,000 claims to 2.951 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.56 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 3.05 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 4.61 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – July 31 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 1 basis point to 4.44% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume decreased 4% over the same period.

Rates now appear to possibly be trending down after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points seemingly directly correlated with the Feds recent suggestion that they may start to wind down GSE purchases later this year.

It appears now though that Chairman Bernanke's latest comments might have worked to provide a bit more clarity surrounding the Feds plans for QE thereby working to halt the recent run-up in rates.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: June 2013

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that the national economy remained near contraction in June with the index improving to weak level of -0.13 from a level of -0.29 in May while the three month moving average improved to a level of -0.26.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – July 17 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) went flat at 4.53% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 1% and the refinance application volume decreased 4% over the same period.

Rates have literally exploded rising a whopping 106 basis points over the past nine weeks seemingly directly correlated with the Feds recent suggestion that they may start to wind down GSE purchases later this year.

Clearly, steadily increasing rates is working to tamp down mortgage application activity but thus far, the spillover to home sales and price indicators appears minimal.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation June 2013

Last week’s Employment Situation Report indicated that in June, net non-farm payrolls increased by 195,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 202,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate went flat at 7.6% over the same period.

Net private sector jobs increased 0.18% since last month climbing 2.11% above the level seen a year ago but remained 1.40% below the peak level of employment seen in December 2007.

On The Margin: Total Unemployment June 2013

Last week's Employment Situation report showed that in June “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers increased to 14.3% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate went flat at 7.6%.

The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.

The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.

To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.

Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation May 2013

Today’s Employment Situation Report indicated that in May, net non-farm payrolls increased by 175,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 178,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment rate increased slightly to 7.6% over the same period.

Net private sector jobs increased 0.16% since last month climbing 1.95% above the level seen a year ago but remained 1.62% below the peak level of employment seen in December 2007.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – May 09 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) went flat at 3.47% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 2% and the refinance application volume increased 8% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims April 25 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed a decline to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 16,000 to 339,000 claims from 355,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 93,000 claims to 3.0 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.79 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 3.20 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 4.99 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: April 2013

The March release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated a slight worsening of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index falling to a weak expansionary level of 1.3 while assessments the future activity plunged to a level of 19.5.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – March 13 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 9 basis points to 3.67% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume declined 5% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – March 06 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 7 basis points to 3.58% since last week while the purchase application volume jumped a notable 15% and the refinance application volume also rose 15% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).