S&P/Case-Shiller: July 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for July reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index rose a notable 1.86% since June while the Composite-20 index also increased 1.85% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate significant resiliency compared to past years, as prices remained stable through the typically slow winter and early spring period and now appear to be rising notably through the more active late spring period.

The 10-city composite index increased 12.28% as compared to July 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 12.39% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices still show significant peak declines slumping -21.99% for the 10-city national index and -21.32% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: June 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for June reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index rose a notable 2.20% since May while the Composite-20 index also increased 2.15% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate significant resiliency compared to past years, as prices remained stable through the typically slow winter and early spring period and now appear to be rising notably through the more active late spring period.

The 10-city composite index increased 11.89% as compared to June 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 12.07% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices still show significant peak declines slumping -23.39% for the 10-city national index and -22.75% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales July 2013

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing an increase of 0.2% from June, and a gain of 5.4% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales, on the other hand, declined 0.1% from June but still increased 2.61% above the level seen in July 2012 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined 0.1% on the month and increased 0.80% since July 2012.

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.

S&P/Case-Shiller: May 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for May reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index rose a notable 2.48% since April while the Composite-20 index also increased 2.44% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate significant resiliency compared to past years, as prices remained stable through the typically slow winter and early spring period and now appear to be rising notably through the more active late spring period.

The 10-city composite index increased 11.82% as compared to May 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 12.17% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices still show significant peak declines slumping -25.01% for the 10-city national index and -24.39% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: April 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for April reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index rose a notable 2.63% since March while the Composite-20 index also increased 2.52% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate significant resiliency compared to past years, as prices remained stable through the typically slow winter and early spring period and now appear to be rising notably into the more active late spring.

The 10-city composite index increased 11.58% as compared to April 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 12.05% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -26.81% for the 10-city national index and -26.22% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: March 2013

Yesterday's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for March reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased again rising a notable 1.38% since February while the Composite-20 index also increased 1.38% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate more resiliency than seen in recent years as prices continue to move up even in the face of typically lower seasonal transactions.

If this trend continues, rather than declining as has been seen in past years, prices may continue to rise in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

The 10-city composite index increased 10.26% as compared to March 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 10.87% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -28.64% for the 10-city national index and -28.02% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: February 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for February reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased for a straight month rising 0.37% since January while the Composite-20 index increased 0.29% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate more resiliency than seen in recent years as prices continue to move up even in the face of typically lower seasonal transactions.

If this trend continues, rather than declining as has been seen in past years, prices may just remain flat into the March-April release in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

The 10-city composite index increased 8.60% as compared to February 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 9.32% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -29.63% for the 10-city national index and -29.03% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: January 2013

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for January reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased again rising a slight 0.16% since December while the Composite-20 index increased 0.13% over the same period.

The latest CSI data is beginning to demonstrate more resiliency than seen in recent years as prices continue to move up, even just slightly, in the face of typical lower seasonal transactions.

If this trend continues, rather than declining as has been seen in past years, prices may just remain flat into the February-March release in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

The 10-city composite index increased 7.25% as compared to January 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 8.08% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -29.86% for the 10-city national index and -29.24% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: December 2012

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for December reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased a slight 0.25% since November while the Composite-20 index increased 0.16% over the same period.

The latest CSI data demonstrates, more or less, that the typical seasonal pattern is continuing to play with price weakness coming as a result of lower seasonal transactions.  If this trend continues, prices should continue to remain flat to decline into the February-March release in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

It's important to recognize though that on a year-over-year basis, nominal prices remain in positive territory possibly indicating the current seasonal weakness may be minor compared to recent years.

The 10-city composite index increased 5.95% as compared to December 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 6.84% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -29.96% for the 10-city national index and -29.33% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: November 2012

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for November reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index declined a slight 0.17% since October while the Composite-20 index declined 0.09% over the same period.

The latest CSI data clearly demonstrates that the typical seasonal pattern is continuing to play with price weakness coming as a result of lower transactions.  If this trend continues, prices should continue to decline into the February-March release in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

It's important to recognize though that on a year-over-year basis, nominal prices remain in positive territory possibly indicating that this seasons seasonal weakness may minor compared to recent years.

The 10-city composite index increased 4.54% as compared to November 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 5.52% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -30.05% for the 10-city national index and -29.39% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales December 2012

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing an increase of 0.5% from November and an increase of 4.7% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales also increased 0.25% from November climbing 1.72% above the level seen in December 2011 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined 0.04% over the same period.

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.

S&P/Case-Shiller: September 2012

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for September reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased a slight 0.28% since August while the Composite-20 index increased 0.29% over the same period.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends, while continuing to experience a slight lift through the typically more active late-summer season, are beginning to see a flattening of sorts and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data is starting to see the leveling off of prices yield to the typical seasonal downtrend into the fall.

The 10-city composite index increased 2.13% as compared to September 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 3.00% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -29.77% for the 10-city national index and -29.20% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: August 2012

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for August reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased 0.87% since August while the Composite-20 index increased 0.88% over the same period.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends continued to experience a lift through the typically more active spring-summer season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data while continuing to capture rising prices, is starting to see a leveling off of the trend as the data moves through the summer transactions and heads for the typical declines seen in late-summer and fall.

The 10-city composite index increased 1.35% as compared to August 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 2.03% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -29.90% for the 10-city national index and -29.37% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: July 2012

Note... be sure to bookmark the overall S&P/Case-Shiller Dashboard or the Scary Housing Dashboard of the weakest markets for a real-time view of all the markets tracked by S&P.

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for July reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased 1.52% since June while the Composite-20 index increased 1.59% over the same period.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends are experiencing a lift through the typically more active spring-summer season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data while continuing to capture rising prices, is starting to see a leveling off of the trend as the data moves through the summer transactions and heads for the typical declines seen in late-summer and fall.

The 10-city composite index increased 0.62% as compared to July 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 1.20% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -30.49% for the 10-city national index and -29.98% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: June 2012

Note... be sure to bookmark the overall S&P/Case-Shiller Dashboard or the Scary Housing Dashboard of the weakest markets for a real-time view of all the markets tracked by S&P.

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for June reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased 2.18% since May while the Composite-20 index increased 2.33% over the same period.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends are experiencing an uptrend through the typically more active spring-summer season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data is continuing to capture notable rising prices driven primarily by seasonality.

The 10-city composite index increased 0.10% as compared to June 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 0.50% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -31.49% for the 10-city national index and -31.14% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

I'm Back!

I'm back and while I wasn't inspired to blog while away in France, I'm ready to fire up the econ data posts and possibly throw in a few new creative posts from time to time.

Looks like the overall economic picture hasn't changed much this summer... unchanged unemployment rate, tepid Q2 GDP, falling June existing home sales, etc... though I have yet to really digest all the data series in detail to fully absorb the latest trends.

One thing I can say with certainty though... home sales activity has peaked for the year as the seasonal factors (lower demand for single family homes post-summer heading into new school year) begin to sink in resulting in reduced sales until mid-November where sales will dramatically slow until the beginning of the next selling season in the Spring of 2013.

Tomorrow's S&P/Case-Shiller home price index should continue to capture generally rising prices, a trend that is likely to remain until the slower Fall and Winter sales begin to influence the data.

S&P/Case-Shiller: April 2012

Note... be sure to bookmark the overall S&P/Case-Shiller Dashboard or the Scary Housing Dashboard of the weakest markets for a real-time view of all the markets tracked by S&P.

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for April reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased 1.29% since March while the Composite-20 index increased 1.28% over the same period.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends are beginning to experience an uptrend through the typically more active spring season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data is continuing to capture notable rising prices driven primarily by seasonality.

The 10-city composite index declined 2.23% as compared to April 2011 while the 20-city composite declined 1.90% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -34.42% for the 10-city national index and -34.24% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: March 2012

Note... be sure to bookmark the overall S&P/Case-Shiller Dashboard or the Scary Housing Dashboard of the weakest markets for a real-time view of all the markets tracked by S&P.

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for March reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index declined 0.09% since February while the Composite-20 index declined 0.03% over the same period resulting in the lowest level seen to on the Composite-10 since early 2003 and the largest peak decline seen since the nearly six year old housing bust began in 2006.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends are experiencing a declining trend through the typically less active winter season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data is continuing to capture notable rising prices driven primarily by seasonality.

The 10-city composite index declined 2.85% as compared to March 2011 while the 20-city composite declined 2.57% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -35.21% for the 10-city national index and -35.07% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: February 2012

Note... be sure to bookmark the overall S&P/Case-Shiller Dashboard or the Scary Housing Dashboard of the weakest markets for a real-time view of all the markets tracked by S&P.

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for February reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index declined 0.78% since January while the Composite-20 index declined 0.76% over the same period resulting in the lowest level seen to on the Composite-10 since April 2003 and the largest peak decline seen since the nearly six year old housing bust began in 2006.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends are experiencing a declining trend into the typically less active summer and fall season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data is continuing to capture notable falling prices driven primarily by seasonality.

The 10-city composite index declined 3.60% as compared to February 2011 while the 20-city composite declined 3.49% over the same period.

Topping the list of regional peak decliners was Las Vegas at -61.71%, Phoenix at -54.22%, Miami at -50.34%, Tampa at -47.96% and Detroit at -46.01%.

Additionally, both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -35.08% for the 10-city national index and -35.02% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

S&P/Case-Shiller: January 2012

Note... be sure to bookmark the overall S&P/Case-Shiller Dashboard or the Scary Housing Dashboard of the weakest markets for a real-time view of all the markets tracked by S&P.

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for January reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index declined 0.83% since December while the Composite-20 index declined 0.84% over the same period resulting in the lowest level seen to on the Composite-10 since June 2003 and the largest peak decline seen since the nearly six year old housing bust began in 2006.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends are experiencing a declining trend into the typically less active summer and fall season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data is continuing to capture notable falling prices driven primarily by seasonality.

The 10-city composite index declined 3.86% as compared to January 2011 while the 20-city composite declined 3.78% over the same period.

Topping the list of regional peak decliners was Las Vegas at -61.56%, Phoenix at -54.78%, Miami at -50.66%, Tampa at -47.86% and Detroit at -45.84%.

Additionally, both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -34.42% for the 10-city national index and -34.41% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.