On The Margin: Total Unemployment February 2013

Today’s Employment Situation report showed that in February “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers declined slightly 14.3% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate also ticked down to 7.7%.

The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.

The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.

To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims March 07 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed a decline to initial unemployment claims and a slight increase to continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 7,000 to 340,000 claims from 347,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by 3,000 claims to 3.094 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.4%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.78 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 3.53 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 5.31 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – March 06 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 7 basis points to 3.58% since last week while the purchase application volume jumped a notable 15% and the refinance application volume also rose 15% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

ADP National Employment Report: February 2013

Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. improved in February as private employers added 198,000 jobs in the month bringing the total employment level 1.64% above the level seen in February 2012.

Perusing the rest of the data in the ADP dataset you can see the the economy is currently showing the most growth for small to mid-sized service providing jobs with goods-producing jobs remaining near trough levels.

Look for Friday’s BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show somewhat similar trends.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business: February 2013

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related business activity continued to expand in February as assessments of service-sector related activity generally improved with the business activity component increasing slightly while the overall non-manufacturing index climbed to 56.0 from last months reading of 55.2.

At 56.9 the business activity index improved a slight 0.89% since January but remained 5.64% below the level seen a year earlier.

This month, service industry respondents are sounding very positive with all respondent quotes citing improving activity and "positive signs":


"Our business is beginning to turn up slightly." (Health Care & Social Assistance)

"Business seems to be improving; RFQ volume and orders also up." (Management of Companies & Support Services)

"Continuing to see slight uptrend in activity, primarily related to 1st quarter initiatives started." (Finance & Insurance)

"Construction market showing some positive signs." (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)

"The economy continues to slowly pick up, perhaps at an even faster pace than had been previously projected. New housing permits and business licenses are at a multiyear high, although still lower than pre-recession." (Public Administration)

"February bouncing back to forecast levels, which was 11 percent over 2012." (Wholesale Trade)

"Business is picking up; more projects to bid and things are improving." (Construction)

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices December 2012

The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in December, the price of residential properties declined 0.8% since November but climbed 26.77% above the level seen in December 2011.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

Constuction Spending: January 2013

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing mixed results in January with total construction spending and non-residential construction spending declining while single family residential construction spending improved.  

On a month-to-month basis, total residential spending declined 0.02% from December climbing 22.05% above the level seen in January 2012 while still remaining a whopping 54.97% below the peak level seen in 2006.

Single family construction spending climbed a notable 3.62% since December rising 30.21% since Janaury 2012 but remained a whopping 68.00% below it's peak in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending declined a whopping 5.08% since December but still climbing 3.95% above the level seen in January 2012 and remained a whopping 27.36% below the peak level reached in October 2008.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.