Existing Home Sales Report: August 2013

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for August showing a  increase in sales with total home sales climbing 1.7% since July rising 13.2% above the level seen in August 2012.

Single family home sales also improved climbing 1.7% from July and rising 12.8% above the level seen in August 2012 while the median selling price increased a notable 14.4% above the level seen a year earlier.

Inventory of single family homes increased from July to 2.01 million units but still remained 5.6% below the level seen in August 2012 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a monthly supply of 5.0 months.

The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply since 2005.

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims September 19 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed an increase to both initial jobless claims and a decline to continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims climbed back above the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 15,000 to 309,000 claims from 294,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 28,000 claims to 2.787 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.45 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 2.51 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 3.97 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

New Residential Construction Report: August 2013

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results in August with an 3.8% decline to total housing permits while single family permits total and single family starts improved on the month.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 3.0% from July to 627K single family units (SAAR), and  increased 20.6% above the level seen in August 2012 but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts increased 7.0% from July to 628K units (SAAR), and rose 16.9% above the level seen in August 2012 but still remained well below the peak set in early 2006.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – September 18 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 7 basis points to 4.68% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume declined 20% over the same period.

Rates appear to be continuing to rise after some settling and following weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points seemingly directly correlated with the Feds recent suggestion that they may start to "taper" the GSE and treasury purchases later this year.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Production Pullback: Industrial Production August 2013

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing an increase in August with total industrial production climbing 0.41% since July and rising 2.66% above the level seen in August 2012.

Capacity utilization also improved climbing 0.25% from July and rising 0.83% above the level seen in August 2012 to stand at 77.84%

It's important to recognize that though the "recovery" is well over two years old, both industrial production and capacity utilization are notably below the peaks set in late 2007.

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims September 12 2013

Today’s jobless claims report showed notable declines to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims dropped below 300K for the first time since mid-2007 though this steep drop appears to have come as a result of under-reporting and is likely to be revised upward next week.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims dropped by 31,000 to 292,000 claims from 323,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 73,000 claims to 2.871 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.2%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 1.45 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 2.74 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 4.19 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – September 11 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 7 basis points to 4.68% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume declined 20% over the same period.

Rates appear to be continuing to rise after some settling and following weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points seemingly directly correlated with the Feds recent suggestion that they may start to "taper" the GSE and treasury purchases later this year.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).